Significant transactions
Adds/Buys
- Cie Generale Establissements - (consumer discretionary, new position)
- Target - (consumer staples, new position)
- Corebridge Financial Inc – (financials, add)
- Masco Corp - (industrials, add)
- Fortescue Ltd - (materials, add)
Trims/Sell
- Texas Instruments - (information technology, eliminate position)
- Bayer AG - (health care, trim)
- BNP Paribas - (financials, trim)
- Ingersoll Rand Inc - (industrials, trim)
- J M Smucker - (consumer staples, eliminate position)
Fund positioning
Equity
Global equity markets started the year strong, as inflation fell and the prospect of lower interest rates fostered optimism for a pick-up in the global economy. Market returns were largely driven by multiple expansion rather than higher earnings growth. Only selective parts of the market saw earnings growth. The strongest sectors have been information technology, communication services and financials. Defensive areas like utilities, consumer staples and health care have lagged the market.
From a style perspective, growth beat value during the first quarter (Q1) of 2024. Equity market performance has meaningfully broadened as sectors outside the technology stocks popularly called “Magnificent Seven” also participated in the rally. Valuations look stretched in pockets, as share price gains were driven by enthusiasm in AI and defense stocks and bitcoin ETFs. As markets focussed on such sectors, a set of value stocks were left behind.
As of Q1, the portfolio is most overweight financials, industrials and energy, in which our sub-advisor MFS Investment Management (“MFS”) continues to find the most compelling value opportunities. The biggest sector underweights are information technology, consumer discretionary and real estate.
Fixed income
In response to the moves in Q1, MFS has reduced both duration and credit risk, taking portfolio risk down to the lower end of longer-term ranges. MFS reduced duration primarily in the US$ bloc markets (such as Canada) but also in local emerging market positions in markets such as Mexico. MFS also lightened duration in core Europe following its relative outperformance to the U.S. Offsetting this, MFS added to select markets such as Japan, India (where the portfolio is also long the local currency INR) and the Czech Republic.
The sub-advisor favours “steepener” trades in the U.S. and feel these could work under a number of scenarios. Any ongoing fiscal concerns, especially in a U.S. election year, could result in higher term premiums and a steepening of the curve.
European credit continues to look attractive on a yield and breakeven basis as well as relative to the longer-duration U.S. investment-grade market. MFS feels premiums to the U.S. are largely caused by the financial and real estate sectors.
FI sector view
MFS has reduced its conviction towards local currency emerging market bonds. Despite reducing credit risk over the quarter, MFS is keen to keep some lower-beta positive carry expressions in the portfolio. MFS likes U.S. structured products to achieve this while recognizing the need to maintain liquidity for future opportunities. As a result, the sub-advisor has replaced some corporate risk in Europe with high-quality government-related bonds like those issued by the EU. MFS also prefers to hold agency mortgages relative to investment grade bonds in the U.S.